Although it appears that this ruling may have ended Nawaz Sharif's political career, it is unclear if it also means that the Sharif political dynasty is over.
Regarding the political fallout at this juncture, the party has made it quite evident that they will not go so far as to take to the streets.
Nonetheless, it appears that Nawaz has a sizable support base in central Punjab in spite of the conviction, punishment, and trial.
The decision will affect the nation's politics in the long run. It will be extremely difficult, in my opinion, for the establishment or anybody else to topple the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), as they continue to be one of the country's most powerful political groups.
The PML-N remains in power, but Nawaz's political future is undoubtedly under serious doubt. Though his return appears to be extremely unlikely, the PML-N will continue to exist as a political force.
The accountability process, or so-called accountability, has an issue because... While I don't think the accusations made against him are unfounded, there is undoubtedly a lot of doubt about how the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has operated. This is among the factors contributing to the verdict's perception as political victimization.
Therefore, the issue is more complex than merely "accountability" or "justice being done" and has a political component.
The credibility of NAB is being questioned.
Politically speaking, the consequences are the same as they were following the first conviction: the Sharif family and the political party are going to face challenges at this time.
Nawaz has evidently already been declared ineligible by the Supreme Court; until the legislation is changed by parliament, there is no chance of a reversal in that instance. He was free on bond, but the Supreme Court heard arguments against that bail, and as a result, he was disqualified and found guilty in a different case.
In addition, Shahbaz Sharif is being detained and facing several accusations. It appears that Hamza Shahbaz is likewise clouded. In one instance, Maryam Nawaz received a conviction.
It appears that no one in the family is currently in a position to operate the party legally or who is permitted to do so.
Since the party is named after the Sharifs and this is the first family, that causes issues for both the family and the party.
In addition, a number of the party's senior political figures, including loyalists and members of the kitchen cabinet, are currently dealing with references, cases, or allegations. Khawaja Saad Rafique is in custody, and Khawaja Asif is rumored to be abroad. Ahsan Iqbal, Marriyum Aurangzeb, and Rana Sanaullah are the subjects of reports of investigations. I believe that Shahid Khaqan Abbasi is also under investigation.
Thus, as I mentioned before, the party and the family are going through a challenging period politically and legally, and the court cases are only one aspect of it.
The party has a respectable number of seats, unlike in 2002, but it is losing power in Punjab and the Center for the first time since a long time.
However, just like in 2002, there is ample evidence to imply that efforts were made to deny them their just portion of authority.
The fact is, accountability in Pakistan is invariably driven by political considerations—or lack thereof.
The Ehtesab Commission was used to target opponents or dissident voices during Nawaz's second term; Musharraf then redesigned it and it had a similar purpose, and we all heard about the Pakistan People's Party-Patriots and all that.
Then, these parties made sure that NAB would be incredibly weak for the five years of the PPP government and then for a portion of the PML-N government.
Now that things are reversed, it is extremely active—almost "too active."
According to certain accusations, the NAB's actions are unfair or selective in that certain political figures or parties are the target of aggressive targeting while others are not.
Even when it doesn't work, we know it's because of political interference, so even if it's true, this is what NAB has been accused of from the beginning.
Eventually, all the main political parties will have to work out how to actually make NAB independent and autonomous so that its shift in focus doesn't appear to be the result of someone's pressure or whim.
And that will guarantee its independence, so maybe less concerns about the accountability drive's bias will arise.
Shall we describe it as a mixed bag? In one case, punishment; in another, acquittal. The terrible reality is that Nawaz has a seven-year sentence.
The Flagship case's acquittal will undoubtedly lead to a judicial battle in the coming days over whether or not Nawaz owned all of the assets in all three instances.
The leaders of the PML-N have a point to make on talk shows, but the Sharifs, who are already at odds with the establishment, are in a difficult position.
Political parties do engage in legal disputes as well as political ones, although typically not simultaneously.
The party itself has no past, Shahbaz is in NAB detention and perhaps ready to travel abroad for treatment, and the elder Sharif is incarcerated.
The only person who can save the party and take over the Sharifs' mantle is Maryam, who has now broken her enigmatic quiet through her tweets.
Although Maryam is seen as a savior, her prominence and harsh criticism of the establishment's role pose a hardship for many party leaders, including her uncle.
Given that the bogus accounts controversy has now affected Asif Ali Zardari and his sister Faryal Talpur, it is likely that both parties would work together.
If Zardari disappears from the political landscape, I think Bilawal Bhutto might lead PPP politics to success.
In addition, if Zardari is imprisoned, I cannot rule out Asefa Bhutto's involvement alongside Bilawal. But I believe the PML-N is facing a leadership crisis if Maryam stays out of politics.
It appears that a minus one formula is in the works, and a lot will rely on how the opposition parties respond.
The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf and the establishment may face a political catastrophe if the PPP and the PML-N decide to sign any kind of agreement that goes back to their historical differences.
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